Accession Number : AD0712350

Title :   SIMPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE ENLISTMENT AND REENLISTMENT IN ARMY MANPOWER PLANNING.

Descriptive Note : Technical paper,

Corporate Author : RESEARCH ANALYSIS CORP MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Lindsay,William A. ; Berger,Doris C. ; Mormile,Gregory T.

Report Date : SEP 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 48

Abstract : The paper explores several methods of projecting Army enlistments and reenlistments for manpower planning purposes. For the longer range, the correlation between no prior service enlistments and total annual accessions provides a good means of projecting the future enlistment pattern when accession requirements have been previously estimated. Similar monthly regression equations are shown to be appropriate for estimating monthly enlistments. An alternative method for monthly projection through use of an average rate is examined. The report discusses various Army planning scenarios (e.g., draft vs no draft) to illustrate when these methods may be appropriate. Finally a regression method for predicting annual first-term reenlistment rates based on previous year's total manpower accessions is presented. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*RECRUITING, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), (*PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, ARMY RESEARCH), MANPOWER, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, CURVE FITTING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE