Accession Number : AD0713050

Title :   DERIVATION OF ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR ANALYZING DECISIONS UNDER RISK.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Dowling,John Patrick , Jr

Report Date : SEP 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 41

Abstract : The problem of analyzing decisions under risk is investigated. The vehicle for this investigation is the single-period inventory model commonly referred to as the newsboy problem. The maximum expected value of the profit is the criterion most often used in making a decision in this type of problem. The paper analyzes this model in several ways. Appropriate display of additional information allows the decision maker to implicitly assign his utilities in terms of his preferences when making decisions under risk. A modification of the expected utility function is also discussed. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION THEORY, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL), STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, INVENTORY ANALYSIS, PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PROBLEM SOLVING, THESES

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE