Accession Number : AD0717049

Title :   Projection of Aggregate Statistics Subject to Random Variation.

Descriptive Note : Interim rept.,

Corporate Author : ARMY LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT CENTER FORT LEE VA

Personal Author(s) : Kaplan,Alan J.

Report Date : DEC 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 36

Abstract : The projection of various aggregate statistics for an inventory of secondary items is investigated. These statistics include procurement related statistics such as total dollar value of material to be purchased if all requirements are to be met, and supply support related statistics such as average amount likely to be on backorder. A forecast of demand is an input. At issue was how best to apply existing knowledge of the dynamics of the supply process to translate a demand forecast into a projection of statistics. A simulation recognizing the random character of demand and even procurement lead times was developed and used as a tool for evaluating current projection techniques including deterministic simulation of buy and theoretical steady state approaches. Contents in which current techniques are and are not adequate are identified. A simple procedure is developed which may have potential for improving projection of procurement related statistics. This procedure is scheduled for a large scale test with actual data. An approach to more effective projection of supply support related statistics is indicated. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*INVENTORY CONTROL, SCHEDULING), (*GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), INVENTORY CONTROL, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, SIMULATION, RANDOM VARIABLES, COSTS, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE