Accession Number : AD0719805

Title :   An Optimum Model with a Small Number of Variables for Multilevel Forecasting of the Geopotential Field,

Corporate Author : FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY DIV WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO

Personal Author(s) : Rukhovets,L. V.

Report Date : 09 DEC 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 29

Abstract : Many of the methods presently used for operational numerical weather forecasting cannot be used on more than a few levels. The difficulties in forecasting the fields of meteorological factors for a large number of levels are given and a two-parameter model is proposed for forecasting the geopotential fields. This model is based on optimum conventionalization, i.e. on a system which assures the best statistical accuracy in approximating the vertical profiles of the meteorological elements. Equations are derived which should be satisfied by the optimum function system. The author considered the statistical stability of optimum functions and found that those for daily changes in the geopotential are stable regardless of latitude or season, which applies as well to the optimum functions of the vertical profiles for the meridian and regional wind velocity components and those of daily geopotential changes are similar. The optimum functions were calculated for 20 days selected from the beginning of January, the middle of April, the beginning of July and the end of Octobe. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA, AIR MASS ANALYSIS, USSR

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE