Accession Number : AD0723850

Title :   How to Burgle if You Must: A Decision Problem,

Corporate Author : CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA

Personal Author(s) : Kadane,Joseph B.

Report Date : MAY 1971

Pagination or Media Count : 7

Abstract : A burglar with an initial fortune is contemplating some possible burglaries. Each such burglary i, i=1,.., n, is characterized by a probability P sub i of success and a value v sub i which the burglar obtains if he succeeds. However, if he fails, he loses his entire accumulated fortune and is put out of business. The burglar might decide to choose burglaries to maximize the probability of successfully stealing some target amount V, or he might decide to choose burglaries to maximize his expected fortune. Both problems are gambling problems. This model is closely related to the quiz show model. A contestant is confronted with a set of possible categories i, i=1,...,n from which his next question will come. Each category is characterized by the probability P sub i of success, a prize X sub i for winning, and a consolation prize Y sub i for losing. If the contestant fails, he is forced to leave the game. However, the contestant retains his previous earnings, while the burglar loses his entire accumulated fortune in the event of failure. The distinction between these two models thus lies in the consequence of failure. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION THEORY, CRIMINOLOGY), PROBABILITY, OPTIMIZATION, SEQUENCES(MATHEMATICS), THEOREMS

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE