Accession Number : AD0727147

Title :   Conservatism in Intuitive Multiple Regression.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : OREGON RESEARCH INST EUGENE

Personal Author(s) : Earle,Timothy C. ; Lichenstein,Sarah ; Slovic,Paul

Report Date : MAY 1971

Pagination or Media Count : 29

Abstract : This was a study of cue utilization based on the correlational Lens Model. During training, 40 Ss learned how to use each of two independent numerical cues, separately, to predict a numerical criterion. One cue correlated .40 with the criterion; the other cue correlated .80 with the criterion. The Ss were trained to use scatter plots and regression lines to help them predict the criterion from the cue. Feedback of the true criterion value was given after every trial. Analysis of cue utilization was focused on the concept of conservatism, a concept borrowed from Bayesian studies of information processing. The Ss in this study were found to be conservative. The four groups did not differ in total accuracy but the successive-presentation groups showed an effect not found in the simultaneous-presentation groups: the first cue was used with greater conservatism than was the second cue. Thus it was shown that a concept of human information-processing inadequacy, conservatism, which was originally developed under one paradigm (Bayesian research), can be successfully translated to another paradigm (Lens Model research), to expand the generality of the concept. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PROBABILITY, OPTIMIZATION, LEARNING

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE