Accession Number : AD0734166

Title :   Fundamental Problems in Applying Models and Predictive Mechanisms,

Corporate Author : KETTELLE (JOHN D) CORP ARLINGTON VA

Personal Author(s) : Luster,Peter K.

Report Date : 01 NOV 1971

Pagination or Media Count : 57

Abstract : Fundamental problems relating to representing reality in a model and inductive inference of conclusions from model results are presented and include correspondence of entities in theoretical and applied models, definition of fair sample, completeness, failure of nerve and imagination, and dependence of scientific belief and proper induction on scientific culture. A formal method for detecting potential variability of scientific belief is developed based on Bayes' Theorem. The appendix lists some rountine problems of model application. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, PROBABILITY), GAME THEORY, DECISION THEORY, SAMPLING, MATHEMATICAL LOGIC, THEOREMS, ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE, MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE