Accession Number : AD0738041

Title :   Bayesian Modification of the Failure Rate Function.

Descriptive Note : Research rept.,

Corporate Author : CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA MANAGEMENT SCIENCES RESEARCH GROUP

Personal Author(s) : Aldrich,Carole A. ; Morton,Thomas E.

Report Date : DEC 1971

Pagination or Media Count : 22

Abstract : The failure rate function is widely used in such theoretical frameworks as dynamic programming and control theory, reliability and redundancy, queueing and renewal theory; which have been developed for such diverse applications as modeling research and development, priority schemes for time sharing computers, demand for replacement parts, and design of space vehicles. The parameters of the function are often uncertain; furthermore the fact of non-failure up to a point z yields information on the parameters. As Lucas has pointed out, specification of an initial prior distribution g(a) on the parameter vector a leads directly via Bayesian analysis from the original failure rate function h(z/a) to a modified failure rate function H*(z) which may then be used in the analysis as if it were deterministic. Of great interest are results about the general shape of H*(z) (increasing, decreasing, unimodal, convex, etc.) in terms of H(z/a) and g(a). (Author)

Descriptors :   (*STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS, THEOREMS), DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, CONTROL SYSTEMS, RELIABILITY, QUEUEING THEORY, REPLACEMENT THEORY, TIME SHARING, EXPONENTIAL FUNCTIONS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE