Accession Number : AD0738959

Title :   A Method for Predicting the Total Number of Parts Required to Rebuild a Given Lot of End Items,

Corporate Author : ARMY MATERIEL COMMAND TEXARKANA TEX INTERN TRAINING CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Wright,Lonnie F.

Report Date : MAY 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 50

Abstract : The paper presents a prediction procedure by which the total number of parts needed to rebuild a specific lot of items can be forecast. The procedure uses exponential smoothing to weight the historical and incoming data in order to obtain a new estimate of the lot percent defective. The binomial distribution is used to find the probability of using a specific number of parts in rebuild of the items. The final decision as to the total number of parts to order for rebuild is optimized by use of a total cost equation, which includes costs of overforecasting as well as underforecasting the required number of parts. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*REPLACEMENT THEORY, SPARE PARTS), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, COSTS, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, RELIABILITY, THESES, ARMY EQUIPMENT

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE