Accession Number : AD0743763

Title :   Forecasting the Motion of Northeastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Freeman,David Lansing

Report Date : MAR 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 59

Abstract : Several operational methods of forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones over the northeast Pacific Ocean area are evaluated for three 1970 and nine 1971 hurricanes. OFFICIAL forecast accuracy is shown to excel that of TYRACK (1971 only) and HATRACK (both years). The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) forecast scheme developed by the Navy in Monterey, California, comprising a numerical steering component (HATRACK) with a statistical modification (correction for bias in HATRACK) is applied to the same 1970-71 operational data, with the result that the MODHATR accuracy, using 850 mb steering, is shown to be superior to HATRACK and TYRACK while only slightly inferior to the OFFICIAL forecasts. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, TROPICAL CYCLONES), (*TROPICAL CYCLONES, *PACIFIC OCEAN), MOTION, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, ACCURACY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, SAMPLING, CORRECTIONS, THESES, NAVAL RESEARCH, CALIFORNIA

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE