Accession Number : AD0745404

Title :   A Method for Combining Asymmetric Three-Value Predictions of Time or Cost,

Corporate Author : RESEARCH ANALYSIS CORP MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Sutherland,William H.

Report Date : JUL 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 45

Abstract : A method is shown for readily finding the sum or product of Weibull distributions corresponding to three-value predictions of time or cost. The predictions must each be in the three-value form: a most likely value falling between high and low values having specified probabilities of occurrence. The first, second, and third moments of each Weibull distributions are found suing dimensionless graphs entered with an 'asymmetry quotient' found arithmetically from the original prediction values. Then the moments of the individual distributions are combined to find the three moments of the overall distribution. If desired, these combined moments can be converted to the three-value form of the original estimates--a low, most likely, and high figure. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, RANDOM VARIABLES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MONTE CARLO METHOD, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS), STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, COSTS

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE