Accession Number : AD0746260

Title :   A Tri-Service Bayesian Approach to Nuclear Weapons Reliability Assessment.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : PICATINNY ARSENAL DOVER N J

Personal Author(s) : Mardo,John G. ; Cole,Peter V. Z. ; Seibel,Gerald ; Stephenson,Alan R.

Report Date : APR 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 70

Abstract : The report presents a system reliability assessment technique which is presently recommended by a Tri-Service technical working group comprised of individuals from the three services, concerned with improving the reliability assessments of the arming and fuzing subsystems of the nuclear weapons stockpile. This group concluded that the assessment technique should include (a) an estimation procedure that can be empirically shown to generate accurate point and ninety percent confidence interval estimates given the subjectivity and assigned data, (b) a restriction of the required subjectivity by primarily restricting it to the tasks of choosing the appropriate evaluation model and assigning the data, and (c) a specification to the user of the assessments exactly what this subjectivity comprises. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*RELIABILITY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), (*NUCLEAR WEAPONS, RELIABILITY), CONFIDENCE LIMITS, PROBABILITY, RANDOM VARIABLES, SAMPLING, MONTE CARLO METHOD, MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE