Accession Number : AD0747273

Title :   Direct and Indirect Methods for Measuring Utility,

Corporate Author : WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s) : Beach,Barbara Heinrich

Report Date : 04 JUL 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 57

Abstract : Studies investigating subject probabilities have shown that direct verbal estimates of subjective probabilities are essentially equivalent to subjective probabilites inferred from betting behavior. It was the purpose of this experiment to investigate the relationship between direct estimates of utility and utilities inferred from betting behavior. The objects used for utility measurements were college courses. A multiple unit scale and rating scale were used to obtain the subjects' (all college students) direct utility estimates. Indirect utilities were obtained by having the subjects make choices between pairs of bets and then make value judgments about the bets. While it was found that choices among bets could be predicted from the direct utility estimates, further analysis of the data revealed that only 23 of the 64 subjects performed the betting task correctly by maximizing expected utility. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, GAME THEORY), PROBABILITY, REASONING, PREDICTIONS, PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE