Accession Number : AD0749869

Title :   An Objective Baseline for Flare Prediction.

Descriptive Note : Environmental research papers,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS L G HANSCOM FIELD MASS

Personal Author(s) : Podsiadlo,Ronald T.

Report Date : 14 JUL 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 13

Abstract : The relationship between various measurable solar parameters and solar-flare occurrence is examined utilizing a comprehensive solar-geophysical data base containing a variety of objectively-correlated solar measurements. The sample covers the period from January 1955 through February 1968 and includes such parameters as solar flares, sunspots, magnetic fields of sunspots, calcium plages and 9.1 cm radio brightness temperatures. A statistical analysis was performed to determine the parameters most useful for the prediction of solar flares 24 hours in advance. Persistence was identified as the single most important flare predictor, with sunspot magnetic classification, 9.1 cm radio brightness temperature, plage brightness and sunspot area also selected as useful predictors. Objective flare probability prediction equations were developed that incorporate all useful predictors simultaneously. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SOLAR FLARES, PREDICTIONS), SUNSPOTS, MAGNETIC FIELDS, TEMPERATURE, RADIO WAVES, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, RELIABILITY

Subject Categories : Astrophysics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE