Accession Number : AD0751953

Title :   Estimating Limiting Values of the Probability of Rare Events,

Corporate Author : FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY DIV WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO

Personal Author(s) : Zavarina,M. V. ; Klingo,V. V.

Report Date : 10 NOV 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 8

Abstract : Confidence intervals of the probability of the appearance of rare events are estimated as a function of the scale of the sample by which the probability is determined. A table of confidence intervals for actually encountered frequencies at a confidence probability of 99 percent is given. It is noted from the table that true probability of the event (and the average period of its recurrence) may differ several times from that calculated from the sample of frequency of recurrence. For example, if the probability of some meteorological element, calculated over a 30 year period of observations, is 10 percent (average period of recurrence corresponding to ten years), the maximum true value of probability will be equal to 31 percent, and the minimum, to 1.1 percent. Consequently, the minimum possible average period for recurrence will be three years, and the maximum will be 100 years. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), PROBABILITY, CONFIDENCE LIMITS, SAMPLING, USSR

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE