Accession Number : AD0754116

Title :   Forecasting Disease Morbidity.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. 1 Nov 69-31 Dec 72,

Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE INC SAN DIEGO CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Fogel,Lawrence J. ; Mout,Michael L. ; Gill,Robert S.

Report Date : DEC 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 99

Abstract : Data concerning the incidence of certain diagnoses in the Navy population was examined in order to reveal regularities which might permit forecasts of significant incidence suitable for the planning of research activity in connection with such prospective incidence. The analysis includes a review of predictive procedures and requirements, the history of predictive epidemiology as relevant to this task, the use of statistical analysis of the data base, and reference to the larger data base available through publications of the World Health Organization in order to find justification for specific mathematical models of individual diseases. On this basis a general mathematical procedure was developed which analizes the data in terms of epidemics, regularities within the non-epidemic data base, and provides projections of the incidence in the near future for individual diagnoses. The results are scored in terms of percent correct as well as in terms of percent of pay off, this latter index provides a measure of credibility of the forecasts generated. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DISEASES, PREDICTIONS), (*EPIDEMIOLOGY, PREDICTIONS), DIAGNOSIS(MEDICINE), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DECISION THEORY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, NAVAL PERSONNEL

Subject Categories : Medicine and Medical Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE