Accession Number : AD0755725

Title :   A Preliminary Model for Retirement Forecasting.

Descriptive Note : Technical memo.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL UNDERWATER SYSTEMS CENTER NEWPORT R I

Personal Author(s) : Medvec,Kathleen A.

Report Date : 01 NOV 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 34

Abstract : A probabilistic model was devised that constructs a profile of the possible retirements that can be expected within a specified interval of time. Retirement distributions were found to be multimodal for optional retirements. The introduction of a cost of living bonus during a time interval tends to cause additional retirements to occur between the first and second modes of the optional distributions. Discontinued Service retirements occur most often when the candidate is between 1-2 years before optional retirement eligibility. This model is useful in showing that mathematical profiles of retirees can be constructed and is the beginning effort toward developing more sophisticated techniques aimed at this goal. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*NAVAL PERSONNEL, ATTRITION), PROBABILITY, TIME, OPTIMIZATION, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE