Accession Number : AD0755920

Title :   Develop and Implement Techniques to Predict Solar Activity and Its Geophysical Effects.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Nov 69-Oct 72,

Corporate Author : GEOMET INC ROCKVILLE MD

Personal Author(s) : Enger,Isadore ; Fisher,George E. ; Chisholm,Donald

Report Date : NOV 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 40

Abstract : The solar-geophysical data base previously assembled for the period January 1, 1955 through February 28, 1968, was extended to October 31, 1969. X-ray burst data were added to the base; 2-12A for the period July 3, 1966 through August 12, 1969 and 1-8A from March 13, 1968 through August 12, 1969. An objective technique was developed for predicting the duration of the largest short-wave fadeout event (SWF) expected to be associated with a sunspot group tomorrow. An unsuccessful attempt was made to develop techniques for predicting 2-12A X-ray burst decay time once the burst has started. Equations were developed for predicting the geomagnetic index a(p) from 3 through 24 hours ahead. Future work is outlined. All of the above is directed to assisting AFCRL in its program to improve the operational forecasting capabilities of the Air Weather Service Space Environmental Support System (SESS). (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SOLAR DISTURBANCES, PREDICTIONS), (*IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES, PREDICTIONS), SUNSPOTS, SOLAR FLARES, SOLAR RADIATION, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, X RAYS, MAGNETIC STORMS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Subject Categories : Astrophysics
      Atmospheric Physics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE