Accession Number : AD0756951

Title :   Army Manpower Prediction System (AMPS).

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Jun 72-Feb 73 on Phase 1,

Corporate Author : GENERAL ELECTRIC CO WASHINGTON D C

Personal Author(s) : Enke,Stephen

Report Date : 15 FEB 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 280

Abstract : A review is presented of the Army's personnel management and information system to determine its weaknesses and to determine how the system can be modified, and at what cost, to improve the Army's capability, given alternative situations and policies, to predict the active duty strength in terms of officers and enlisted personnel at certain future dates. The need for more effective integration of manpower projections is examined. Major recommendations include: development of a Central Integrating Model (CIM) to project losses, simulate promotions, and project strength up to five years in the future by grade, years of service, management grouping and other selected attributes (CIM would also cost the force); use of a marketing/survey technique called 'Decision Elements Analysis' to predict enlistments and reenlistments; use of the Automatic Interaction Detector (AID) technique to predict loss rates; and the development of a comprehensive Army Personnel Plan to guide all manpower and management actions. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*ARMY PERSONNEL, *PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT), PREDICTIONS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, FEASIBILITY STUDIES, COSTS, MANPOWER

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE