Accession Number : AD0760603

Title :   Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Brewer,Garry D. ; Brunner,Ronald D.

Report Date : AUG 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 32

Abstract : At an early stage in the study of the future and policy making, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists. One important choice concerns the relative utility of forecasting by extrapolating trends or by using process models. The former is more familiar, while the latter is appears more promising. After introduction of a few essential concepts in the formal study of political systems using process model, the effect of complexity on the analytical tractability of the system is noted. Consequent implications for the scientific study of policy are sketched.

Descriptors :   (*SOCIOMETRICS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), SYSTEMS ENGINEERING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, POPULATION, POLITICAL SCIENCE, ECONOMICS

Subject Categories : Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE