Accession Number : AD0761081

Title :   A New Formulation of Lanchester Combat Theory,

Corporate Author : BALLISTIC RESEARCH LABS ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD

Personal Author(s) : Grubbs,Frank E. ; Shuford,John H.

Report Date : MAY 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 10

Abstract : Lanchester's differential equations of combat are inherently deterministic in nature, although considerable effort has been devoted in recent years to introducing stochastic type treatment into the theory by dealing with transition probabilities and variable attrition coefficients, for example. The authors advance the advantageous idea here that the time-to-kill or time-to-neutralize key opposing targets would seem to be the more logical random variable which should be treated on a probabilistic basis, and hence that the fraction of remaining combatants on each side should properly be estimated from the time-to-kill probability distributions sampled, or in other words from principles of the statistical theory of reliability and life-testing. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   (*MILITARY OPERATIONS, *LANCHESTER EQUATIONS), WAR GAMES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, CONFIDENCE LIMITS, RANDOM VARIABLES

Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE