Accession Number : AD0761726

Title :   Development and Application of an Analog Scheme for Predicting the Intensification of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Foster,Kent William

Report Date : MAR 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 95

Abstract : Various meteorological parameters were examined to determine their predictive value for forecasting intensity changes of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones using an analog forecast scheme. A number of procedures were devised to quantitatively define the forecast potentials of these parameters in a systematic method. Based on the results of these procedures, predictors for the 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast periods were defined. To evaluate the skill of the predictors and the procedures used to define them, an analog intensification forecast scheme was developed and applied to a number of test cyclones. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   (*WEATHER FORECASTING, TROPICAL CYCLONES), (*TROPICAL CYCLONES, PACIFIC OCEAN), ANALOG SYSTEMS, INTENSITY, THESES

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE