Accession Number : AD0762192

Title :   Optimum Wind Soundings and Army Fallout Prediction Accuracies.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : ARMY ELECTRONICS COMMAND FORT MONMOUTH N J

Personal Author(s) : Shinn,Joseph H.

Report Date : MAY 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 35

Abstract : ND AN EXPRESSION IS DERIVED TO FIND THE OPTIMUM SOUNDING PERIOD FOR MAXIMUM COST EFFECTIVENESS. Consideration of accuracy versus cost trade-offs is used to show that if 6-hour sounding periods are the policy, they are optimum for nuclear yields up to 100 Kilotons (KT), and the acceptable error in downwind range prediction is about 50%. However, decreasing the error to 20% by shortening sounding periods results in 5-fold cost increase. Further losses of prediction accuracy with small cost savings are the result of increasing the sampling period. To continue to practice of 6-hour sounding periods or to reduce the density of soundings to less than one per Corps would imply accepting an error larger than 20% in fallout prediction for weapons greater than 4 KT. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*FALLOUT, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), (*WIND, FALLOUT), ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING, CURVE FITTING, GRAPHICS, ERRORS, ACCURACY, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

Subject Categories : Atmospheric Physics
      Radioactiv, Radioactive Wastes & Fission Prod

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE