
Accession Number : AD0762192
Title : Optimum Wind Soundings and Army Fallout Prediction Accuracies.
Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,
Corporate Author : ARMY ELECTRONICS COMMAND FORT MONMOUTH N J
Personal Author(s) : Shinn,Joseph H.
Report Date : MAY 1973
Pagination or Media Count : 35
Abstract : ND AN EXPRESSION IS DERIVED TO FIND THE OPTIMUM SOUNDING PERIOD FOR MAXIMUM COST EFFECTIVENESS. Consideration of accuracy versus cost tradeoffs is used to show that if 6hour sounding periods are the policy, they are optimum for nuclear yields up to 100 Kilotons (KT), and the acceptable error in downwind range prediction is about 50%. However, decreasing the error to 20% by shortening sounding periods results in 5fold cost increase. Further losses of prediction accuracy with small cost savings are the result of increasing the sampling period. To continue to practice of 6hour sounding periods or to reduce the density of soundings to less than one per Corps would imply accepting an error larger than 20% in fallout prediction for weapons greater than 4 KT. (Author)
Descriptors : (*FALLOUT, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), (*WIND, FALLOUT), ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING, CURVE FITTING, GRAPHICS, ERRORS, ACCURACY, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
Subject Categories : Atmospheric Physics
Radioactiv, Radioactive Wastes & Fission Prod
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE