Accession Number : AD0762417

Title :   Failure-Rate Prediction and Wearout Detection,

Corporate Author : GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV WASHINGTON D C PROGRAM IN LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Harris,Carl M. ; Marchal,William G. ; Zacks,Shelemyahu

Report Date : 11 MAY 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 53

Abstract : The paper is divided into four specific technical sections. The first presents two classical approaches to the detection of the commencement of wearout of a device, the primary one being the F technique. These methods are essentially ones for testing for constantness in the failure rate and as such can therefore also be used to detect the end of burn-in. The use of the F procedure is then illustrated on some Navy data. The second technical section presents a Bayes-type approach to the same problem and illustrates its use via a similated problem. The next two sections get back to more classical methods, with the first outlining some direct approaches to the estimation of the hazard-rate function itself, and the second indicating a simple method for incorporating the estimating procedure into the determination of an optimal economic replacement interval. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   (*NAVAL EQUIPMENT, RELIABILITY), (*RELIABILITY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION), STATISTICAL TESTS, RANDOM VARIABLES, SAMPLING, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, COMPUTER PROGRAMS

Subject Categories : Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE