Accession Number : AD0766885

Title :   A Proposed Methodology for Weapon System Development Risk Assessment.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Bevelhymer,Herbert L.

Report Date : JUN 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 140

Abstract : Formal risk analysis has become a required part of the weapons acquisition process since 1969. Many methods of quantitative risk assessment require extensive data collection solely for risk purposes. Frequent assessments thus become costly. The thesis proposes a risk assessment methodology that uses contractor-reported data extracted from the standard Cost Performance Report and Schedule Status Report. A graphical network of a project is constructed using the symbology and logic available with the Venture Evaluation and Review Technique (VERT) computer routine. Each network arc is made to correspond with a contract work breakdown structure element. The marginal probability density functions of the network arc's are assumed to be Beta distributed. The parameters of each arc's time and cost distribution are determined using the contractor's monthly revised estimates for work breakdown element costs and completion dates and applying the method of moments. A test application on a weapons system currently in full-scale development was conducted. The test results, although inconclusive, did tend to show promise and merit further application of the methodology. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT, WEAPON SYSTEMS), COSTS, DECISION MAKING, UNCERTAINTY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, THESES, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL

Subject Categories : Administration and Management

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE