Accession Number : AD0767871

Title :   Risk Assessment.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Lenox,Hamilton T.

Report Date : JUN 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 180

Abstract : Risk assessment became an integral part of the DOD system acquisition process in 1969. The primary effort of the paper was directed at exploring past attempts to quantify risk, and while the qualitative measurement of risk is mentioned, it is not explored in any depth. An attempt is made to define or describe the manner in which risk analysis varies throughout the system acquisition life cycle and a methodology using Bayes' Theorem is presented for the quantification and updating of risk in an on-going program. The methods of estimating parameters and their usefulness in a formal analytical process are discussed. The probability density function best transmits the uncertainty associated with an estimate and lends itself more readily to the analytical techniques than other methods of estimation. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   (*MILITARY PROCUREMENT, UNCERTAINTY), STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DECISION THEORY, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, COSTS, ECONOMICS, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING, THESES

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE