Accession Number : AD0768309

Title :   North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities. Volume II: 48 Hour Movement,

Corporate Author : NATIONAL CLIMATIC CENTER ASHEVILLE N C

Personal Author(s) : Crutcher,Harold L. ; Hoxit,Lee R.

Report Date : SEP 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 142

Abstract : Probabilities relating to the future movement of North Pacific tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positons of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons (June-July, August, September, October, November-May). For the Western North Pacific, the period from NOvember-May was sub-divided into three additional seasons (November, December-January, February-May). Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 48 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   (*TROPICAL CYCLONES, *PACIFIC OCEAN), (*WEATHER FORECASTING, TROPICAL CYCLONES), TRACKING, MAPPING, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, PROBABILITY, MARINE METEOROLOGY

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE