Accession Number : AD0769432

Title :   An Analysis of Current Navy Procedures for Forecasting Demand with an Investigation of Possible Alternative Techniques.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Shields,Edward Joseph

Report Date : SEP 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 60

Abstract : An analysis is made of current Navy procedures for assigning a probability density function to demand and the technique(s) used to forecast the parameter(s) of the particular density function chosen. The gamma density function is investigated as a possible replacement for the three density functions currently being used. A comparison of the gamma and normal density functions is made with regards to inventory costs, observed protection levels, and unit effectiveness. Additionally, a comparison is made, through a simple simulation model, of demand patterns generated by demand reporting as it is done today and consumption data reporting as it might be done in the future. The intent of the simulation is to provide some insight into the impact the demand reporting method might have on the variance of demand. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*Inventory control, Lead time), (*Naval logistics, Inventory control), Forecasting, Economic models, Statistical tests, Probability density functions, Computer programs, Theses, FORTRAN

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE