Accession Number : AD0769830

Title :   Forecasting the Size Distribution of a Population of Savings Account: A Markovian Approach.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Chuen,Lui Pao

Report Date : SEP 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 234

Abstract : The Markov chain model, with extensions to cover the phenomena of arrivals and departures, was applied to a population of savings accounts, in a savings institution, to forecast the size distribution, total number of accounts and total amount of savings of the population. The stochastic processes governing the behavior of the population were first assumed to be time stationary. This assumption was then relaxed and an econometric model was used to predict future values of the parameters of the nonstationary model. Both models were validated by comparing predicted size distributions, total number of accounts and total amount of savings against observed values. The fundamental matrix of the stationary model was also used to predict the equilibrium distribution and related measures of the population. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*Savings, Forecasting), (*Economic models, Savings), Stochastic processes, Population(Mathematics), Probability density functions, Statistical tests, Sampling, Matrices(Mathematics), Graphs, Tables(Data), Theses

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE