Accession Number : AD0770905

Title :   Determination of Subjective Prior Distributions for Bayesian Analysis of Maintainability Problems,

Corporate Author : UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES DEPT OF QUANTITATIVE BUSINESS ANALYSIS

Personal Author(s) : Schick,George J. ; Lin,Chi-Yuan

Report Date : DEC 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 9

Abstract : The maintainability engineer is vitally concerned with the prediction of maintenance times. When the design of the product is new and previous data are non-existent the prediction of maintenance times becomes difficult. The paper offers a new, structured approach to establish subjective prior probability distributions until the engineer's judgment is in agreement with the derived distributions. Computer programs were designed to handle two specific tasks: (1) Derivation of a subjective prior distribution via answers to a series of questions. The answers were displayed graphically. (2) Some of the summary output of the first program become input combinations to find the parameters of the log normal distribution which is the most generally used distribution in maintainability. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Statistical analysis, *Bayes theorem, *Maintainability, Maintenance, Mathematical prediction, Spare parts, Distribution functions

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE