Accession Number : AD0771371

Title :   Primacy, Conservatism, and Complexity in Bayesian Information Processing.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,


Personal Author(s) : Murnighan,John K. ; Sung,Yong H.

Report Date : OCT 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 20

Abstract : Past research in Bayesian information processing has found consistent effects for primacy and conservatism. The present experiment attempted to replicate these findings and to investigate two additional hypotheses; that primacy counteracts conservatism, and that an increase in the complexity of the information inhibits good information processing. Four independent variables were manipulated in a bank loan setting formulated by Moskowitz (1971). Diagnosticity of the information presented, the order of good and bad information, and two complexity variables concerned with the actual information presented were varied for each of the three loan applicants each subject reviewed. The sequential probability estimates of the subjects were compared to the predictions of Bayes' theorem. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Information processing, *Bayes theorem, Analysis of variance, Probability, Estimates

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE