Accession Number : AD0775986

Title :   Stochastic Modelling of the Areal Extent of Weather Conditions.

Descriptive Note : Environmental research papers,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS L G HANSCOM FIELD MASS

Personal Author(s) : Gringorten,Irving I.

Report Date : 30 NOV 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 50

Abstract : If the probability of a 24-hour rainfall, exceeding 1/2 inch, is 10 percent over a small area like a barn, how much greater is the probability of such an amount falling somewhere within a 1000-sq mile region. The generalization of this problem is to relate the probability of a meteorological event at a single location to the problem of its occurrence within a specified area or along a specific line of travel. A Monte Carlo technique was applied to a variable that is normally distributed everywhere in a horizontal space. The procedure produced synoptic maps in which the correlation between the elements at two stations decreases determinably with increasing distance between the stations. On each synoptic map the minimum in various-sized areas or along line segments of various lengths was found. From a large number (like 10,000) of such synoptic fields it was possible to plot estimates of the probability distributions of areal minima (or maxima) or minima (or maxima) along lines of travel. This kind of modelling was tested and found effective on temperatures along flight-path segments of several hundred to several thousand miles in length at 100 mb and on New England 24-hour rainfall. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Weather, *Stochastic processes, Climate, Probability, Mathematical models, Monte Carlo method, Correlation techniques, Cloud cover, Atmospheric temperature, Atmospheric precipitation

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE