Accession Number : AD0776980

Title :   A Method for Estimating the Sensitivity of Combat Effectiveness to Countersurveillance Materiel Use: An Application of Risk Analysis.

Descriptive Note : Final technical rept.,


Personal Author(s) : Barnes,George G. ; David,Nancy A.

Report Date : FEB 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 100

Abstract : A method for estimating the sensitivity of combat effectiveness to countersurveillance materiel use is developed by analyzing the decision of an employing commander who is considering the sequence of events that will follow his countersurveillance materiel-use decision. These events are: The altering of information delivered to an enemy commander from his surveillance system because of the countersurveillance effort; the enemy commander's force employment decision based, in part, on this altered information; the engagement outcome given the relative force employments that have ensued. The relation of the commander's decision to his multicomponent risk tolerance is portrayed. The effectiveness of candidate countersurveillance materiel is estimated, along with examples of two types of supporting mathematical simulations. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Counterintelligence, *Army equipment, *Confidence limits, Army personnel, Decision making, Tactical warfare, Risk, Logistics

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE