Accession Number : AD0778675

Title :   Comments on the Tri-Service Bayesian Approach to Nuclear Weapons Reliability Research.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NEW MEXICO UNIV ALBUQUERQUE DEPT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Lenth, RusLell V. ; Zimmer, William J.

Report Date : MAR 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 19

Abstract : The paper presents comments on the report, 'A Tri-Service Bayesian Approach to Nuclear Weapons Reliability Assessment'. The report proposes a procedure for obtaining point and interval estimates for system reliability using component and system test results. The procedure has a Bayesian foundation but the authors suggest that it can be regarded as simply an algorithm used to obtain a reliability assessment with classical properties. The procedure is appealing in that it is a definable procedure that gives point and interval estimates of system reliability based on component, subsystem, and system data, that can be implemented on available computing equipment, and that gives reasonably accurate results when compared to classical properties. The authors examination of the report has two directions: (1) a general criticism of the Monte Carlo study provided in the report along with a criticism of the procedure provided by our own Monte Carlo study.

Descriptors :   *NUCLEAR WEAPONS, *RELIABILITY, BAYES THEOREM, ESTIMATES, SAMPLING, ALGORITHMS.

Subject Categories : Nuclear Warfare
      Nuclear Weapons

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE