Accession Number : AD0780246

Title :   Adaptive Computer Aiding in Dynamic Decision Processes: Part II. Scenario Generation by Elicited Expert Probabilities.

Descriptive Note : Semi-annual technical rept. 1 Oct 73-1 Apr 74,


Personal Author(s) : Freedy,Amos ; May,Donald ; Weisbrod,Richard ; Weltman,Gershon

Report Date : 01 MAY 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 38

Abstract : The report describes the implementation of a system for adaptive computer aiding in dynamic decision processes and provides theoretical background for some of the underlying techniques. The report is presented in two parts under separate covers. 'Scenario Generation by Elicited Expert Probabilities,' describes a unique technique for generating realistic dynamic decision environments. It covers the following topics: (1) a review of requirements for and techniques of generating scenarious; (2) a description of the elicited expert probability approach; (3) a description of the system for generating fishing fleet scenarios and the associated hardware and software. The report was prepared as part of a long term program directed toward the application of adaptive computer techniques for aiding the decision maker and toward the experimental investigation of the factors which influence optimal decision aiding in complex, realistic, intelligence-gathering tasks. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Decision making, *Learning machines, *Computer applications, Adaptive systems, Man machine systems, Intelligence, Statistical decision theory, Bayes theorem, Mathematical models

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE