Accession Number : AD0785438

Title :   A Cost Growth Model for Weapon System Development Programs.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Glover,Willaim L. ; Lenz,John O.

Report Date : 14 AUG 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 133

Abstract : Much attention has been placed on cost growth in military weapon system acquisitions. The reasons for cost growth can be related to uncertainty relative to program costs, delivery dates and product reliability. A conceptual model has been developed to cope with the uncertainties in weapons acquisition programs. The model relates the concepts of entropy, information, uncertainty and costs, predicting final costs based on a measure of uncertainty, synonymous with risk in this study. The measure of uncertainty is entropy, or the lack of order in the information available to the program manager. The model expresses final costs as the ratio of initial cost estimates to program entropy. The authors develop and refine the model for application to weapon development programs. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Military procurement, *Weapon systems, *Costs, Logistics planning, Uncertainty, Risk, Statistical analysis, Mathematical models, Theses

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE