Accession Number : AD0786686

Title :   Multiperiod Adaptive Control of the Wellhead Price of Natural Gas: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s) : Mehta,Cyrus R.

Report Date : AUG 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 121

Abstract : This dissertation provides a methodology for the multiperiod adaptive control of one or more policy variables belonging to a system of linear simultaneous equations by Bayesian methods. The methodology is developed in the context of a specific problem, the dynamic regulation of the wellhead price of natural gas. A mathematical model is first formulated which can probabilistically predict the magnitude of the additions to natural gas reserves and the supply of produced gas due to new contracts for specified values of the wellhead price of natural gas in each range of values assumed by these three variables. Based on the criterion of maximizing expected utility a sequential N-period optimal pricing strategy is then evaluated. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Gases, *Control theory, Economic models, Adaptive control systems, Bayes theorem, Decision theory, Stochastic processes, Mathematical models

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Operations Research
      Fuels

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE