Accession Number : AD0787425

Title :   Parametric Cost Estimating with Applications to Sonar Technology.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Miller,Bruce M. ; Sovereign,Michael G.

Report Date : SEP 1973

Pagination or Media Count : 92

Abstract : The problem of cost overruns has been prevalent in the acquisition of weapon systems. Parametric cost analysis was instituted by the Department of Defense as a means of obtaining accurate initial cost estimates. The parametric approach uses cost estimating relationships (CER) in the development of cost predictions. An algorithm is presented for the development of parametric cost estimates obtained from CER's. Fictitious sonar data is used to provide an example of the application of the algorithm. Input and output CER's are developed and used in the construction of a parametric cost estimate for a proposed submarine sonar system. The problems of data collection, normalization, and aggregation are discussed. Numerous linear regression techniques are applied to the data to obtain the final cost models. Uncertainty in the final cost estimate due to the learning curve effect is discussed along with the uncertainty contained in the cost prediction interval. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Sonar equipment, *Military procurement, *Cost analysis, Mathematical prediction, Decision making, Statistical analysis, Learning curves

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
      Acoustic Detection and Detectors

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE