Accession Number : AD0787426

Title :   A Risk and Comparative Analysis of Aircraft Accident Data.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s) : Burin,James Michael

Report Date : SEP 1974

Pagination or Media Count : 91

Abstract : Aircraft accident data was analyzed to investigate the differences in risk of Naval aircraft and to develop some overall risk measure. To analyze risk, a flight was divided into four risk areas: takeoff, inflight, transition, and landing. Accidents were assumed to occur according to a Poisson process and tests were carried out to prove the validity of the Poisson assumption. The poisson model yielded two factors, the exposure to the risk areas and the performance in them. A procedure to predict risk was developed. A statistic, improvement index, was developed to allow a direct comparison between different types of aircraft with respect to safety performance. (Modified author abstract)

Descriptors :   *Aviation accidents, *Naval aircraft, *Statistical analysis, Risk, Takeoff, Level flight, Aircraft landings, Poisson ratio, Predictions, Aviation safety, Theses

Subject Categories : Safety Engineering

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE