Accession Number : AD0819552

Title :   TROPICAL STORM STEERING USING GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DERIVED FROM SMOOTHED 700-MB AND 500-MB HEIGHT FIELDS.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Hardie, James Stewart

Report Date : JUN 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 50

Abstract : A numerical method for predicting the movement of tropical storms has been developed utilizing smoothed 700-mb (Atlantic area) and 500-mb (Pacific area) height fields as produced by the Fleet Numerical Weather Facility, Monterey, California. Geostrophic steering components are computed from the contour analyses at or near forecast time for predicting storm positions up to 72 hours. Recent-history vector forecast errors are employed as corrections to improve the basic steering forecast for periods up to 36 hours. Testing of storms from 15 August to 1 November 1965 in both Atlantic and Pacific regions indicates the method is comparable in accuracy to official forecasts as published by Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, and Fleet Weather Facility, Jacksonville, Florida, as well as to Atlantic-area forecasts made with the NHC-64 statistical approach for periods up to 48 hours. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*TROPICAL CYCLONES, WEATHER FORECASTING), NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES, THESES, CORIOLIS EFFECT, WIND, STORMS, ATLANTIC OCEAN, PACIFIC OCEAN, MARINE METEOROLOGY, METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA, VECTOR ANALYSIS, APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS), BAROMETRIC PRESSURE, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, DIURNAL VARIATIONS, HURRICANE TRACKING.

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE