Accession Number : AD0822934

Title :   NICP FORECASTING TECHNIQUES.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : ARMY LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT CENTER FORT LEE VA

Personal Author(s) : Gajalo, S.

Report Date : SEP 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 131

Abstract : This report contains recommendations on methodology of forecasting demands and returns of spare parts and components. These recommendations resulted from mostly empirical studies done by the Inventory Research Office (U. S. Army Materiel Command). The studies and analyses leading to these recommendations are described in detail. Included are time series analysis, methods of forecasting, and study of outlier demands. The most appropriate techniques for the three major aspects of forecasting - forecasting the mean, the variability, and detection of significant change in the underlying stochastic process - are discussed and evaluated. In forecasting the mean, these include simple moving average and single and double exponential smoothing. A range of bases is investigated for best results. Also investigated is the effect of non-recurring demands on the accuracy of the forecasted mean. In forecasting the variability the techniques considered are those dependent on the availability of past history (ordinary statistical estimates) and those independent of the availability of past history (using a nomograph). The feasibility of the latter is investigated. Tracking signals of R. G. Brown and D. W. Trigg are discussed.

Descriptors :   *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), (*INVENTORY CONTROL, REPLACEMENT THEORY, INVENTORY CONTROL, PROCUREMENT, DECISION THEORY, ARMY RESEARCH, NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES, NOMOGRAPHS.

Subject Categories : Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE