Accession Number : AD0831984

Title :   CIVIL DEFENSE CRISIS SCENARIOS.

Descriptive Note : Research paper,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ARLINGTON VA INTERNATIONAL AND SOCIAL STUDIES DIV

Personal Author(s) : Moriarty,John K.

Report Date : JUL 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 150

Abstract : These scenarios provide a spectrum of reasonable future political and strategic contexts which might be relevant for the decision to activate a Civil Defense system or for the use of the system. It should be emphasized that the scenarios are not predictive; i.e., the events described are not necessarily believed to be those most likely to transpire. Neither are they unreasonable--except perhaps for a Soviet or US surprise nuclear attack, and it was felt that these contingencies should be included both for logical completeness and because of their extreme implications for a Civil Defense system if they should actually take place. The primary technique used in the development of the scenarios was to create a few basic, relatively protracted, crisis situations, in different parts of the world and in different time periods, and then to add other or alternative crises which take off a varying points either within the basic scenario or at its conclusion. Each of the variations, as well as the basic scenario, is intended to bring out particular aspects of the crises which might have importance for Civil Defense--either for the planning or preparation period when the system should be in readiness, for the mobilization period when international tensions are rising and CD actions themselves may become a factor in the crisis, or for the possible use of the system when the threat appears imminent. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*CIVIL DEFENSE, *WAR GAMES), STRATEGIC WARFARE, NUCLEAR WARFARE, FOREIGN POLICY, DECISION MAKING, UNITED STATES, UNITED NATIONS, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), USSR, COUNTERINSURGENCY, BIOLOGICAL WARFARE, COLD WAR, THREAT EVALUATION, ARMS CONTROL, PLANNING, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), PUBLIC OPINION, CIVILIAN PERSONNEL, RESPONSE(BIOLOGY), NATIONAL DEFENSE, WESTERN EUROPE, FAR EAST, CHINA, SOUTH ASIA

Subject Categories : Civil Defense
      Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE