Accession Number : AD0839033

Title :   ESTIMATES OF THE POTENTIAL OF THE US ECONOMY FOLLOWING A STRATEGIC ATTACK IN 1975,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA PROGRAM ANALYSIS DIV

Personal Author(s) : Bickley, Leonard J. ; Crane, Jane-Ring F. ; Pearsall, Edward S.

Report Date : NOV 1967

Pagination or Media Count : 81

Abstract : This study estimates the potential performance of the US economy following two separate enemy attacks postulated to occur in June 1975-- a counterforce attack and one partially targeted on population. These estimates were generated as solutions to a linear programming problem. Maximization of total value added within a set of upper and lower bounds on final deliveries was taken as the objective function. The constraints include a set of input-output relationships, a set of restrictions on emergency output, and a labor force limitation. A range of solutions was obtained by varying the expected number of survivors and the proportion of the population in the labor force. The results of the Study indicate that the survivors of the attacks may suffer only a minor reduction in their accustomed standard of living provided that the surviving resources can be organized to maximum advantage. In fact, living standards within the first year following either attack could compare favorably to those enjoyed in this country in the post-World War II period. (Author)

Descriptors :   *ECONOMICS), (*NUCLEAR WARFARE, UNITED STATES, PREDICTIONS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DAMAGE, STANDARDS, SURVIVAL(PERSONNEL), LABOR, INDUSTRIES, SHELTERS, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, POPULATION, LINEAR PROGRAMMING.

Subject Categories : Nuclear Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE