Accession Number : AD0839284

Title :   INVESTIGATION OF A BAYESIAN APPROACH APPLIED TO A SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE PROBLEM,

Corporate Author : HRB-SINGER INC STATE COLLEGE PA

Personal Author(s) : Luckie, Peter T. ; Smith, Dennis E. ; Wright, Grace H.

Report Date : JUN 1968

Pagination or Media Count : 65

Abstract : Although it appears theoretically possible that many problems of intelligence could be profitably attacked by a Bayesian approach, several difficulties must be overcome before such an approach can be used as an operational tool. Because test applications of a Bayesian approach to real problems of intelligence offer insight into the areas of difficulty, a specific previously 'solved' intelligence problem was explored with the aid of a cooperating intelligence analyst who used a Bayesian approach. This report discusses the salient aspects of the intelligence problem area, the specific difficulties encountered in the implementation of a Bayesian approach, and the techniques used to eliminate or diminish these difficulties. In addition, the solutions obtained with and without the aid of a Bayesian model are compared and causes of discrepancies are postulated. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*MILITARY INTELLIGENCE, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS), (*DATA PROCESSING, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE), PROBABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, NUMERICAL ANALYSIS, ERRORS, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, INFORMATION THEORY, NETWORKS, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, COMPILERS.

Subject Categories : Information Science
      Statistics and Probability
      Operations Research
      Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE