Accession Number : AD0857631

Title :   Probability of Kill by a Semi-Random Pattern.

Descriptive Note : Rept. for Nov 66-Oct 67,

Corporate Author : AEROSPACE CORP EL SEGUNDO CA ENGINEERING SCIENCE OPERATIONS

Personal Author(s) : Duroux, J. W.

Report Date : 14 JUL 1969

Pagination or Media Count : 42

Abstract : In this analysis, a model is formulated to compute the probability of killing a system of targets with a semi-random pattern of projectiles. The projectiles have regularly spaced nominal points from which their positions vary according to independent bivariate normal distributions. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain probabilities of hit on the individual targets. The probability of kill given a hit is obtained using an individual kill criterion for each target. The probability of kill on the target system results from a logic function which expresses system survival in terms of the individual target survival states. Any level of complexity involving redundancy of targets and multiple hit requirements may be accommodated. The model has been programmed for digital computation. Sample results for some cases of general interest are presented in the report. (Author)

Descriptors :   *KILL PROBABILITIES), (*ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS, CLUSTER WARHEADS), (*CLUSTER WARHEADS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, TARGET DISCRIMINATION, MONTE CARLO METHOD, INTERCEPTION PROBABILITIES, SURVIVAL(PERSONNEL), VULNERABILITY, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING.

Subject Categories : Antimissile Defense Systems
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE