Accession Number : AD0872812

Title :   Theoretical and Empirical Predictions.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : OFFICE OF RESEARCH ANALYSES HOLLOMAN AFB NM

Personal Author(s) : Buck, Gary L. ; Midlarsky, Manus I. ; Erb, Eugene A., Jr

Report Date : MAY 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 250

Abstract : The report describes the statistical tests of an operational theory of social change. It attempts to assess the theory's statistical consistency and potential for predicting the incidence of internal conflict behavior of various types. The major techniques used are factor analysis, stepwise multiple regression analysis, and certain correlational techniques. As a result of these tests, empirical modifications of the theory were suggested and undertaken, though the predictive power of the basic theory was well supported. The conclucions derived are still preliminary, but generally provide insights into the nature of the development process and support a predictive relationship between this process and internal conflict of various types which varies with the stage in the development process. Since the analyses were based on synchronic data and the results have implications for such activities as aid program, collection and analysis of time series information is strongly suggested as an extension of this effort. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*SOCIOMETRICS, TRANSFORMATIONS), (*POLITICAL SCIENCE, PREDICTIONS), (*GROUP DYNAMICS, NORTHERN HEMISPHERE), (*ORGANIZATIONS, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE), THEORY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, BEHAVIOR, SOCIAL COMMUNICATION, RELIGION, INSURGENCY, STABILITY, CULTURE, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), ECONOMICS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, FACTOR ANALYSIS.

Subject Categories : Sociology and Law
      Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE