Accession Number : AD0874192

Title :   A Decision Theoretic Approach to the PERT Subjective Estimation Problem.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Albo, Charles W.

Report Date : JUN 1970

Pagination or Media Count : 38

Abstract : In the PERT subjective estimation problem the objective is to obtain subjective estimates of the unknown parameters of an activity time distribution. The decision theoretic approach suggested in this thesis is based on a single 'most likely' prediction, and it transfers the burden of subjective estimation from the 'expert' to the decisionmaker. No assumption is made regarding the form of the activity time distribution; instead attention is focused on the distribution of the 'expert's' prediction given the unknown parameters of the activity time distribution. Bayes estimates for the mean and standard deviation are investigated for a generalized absolute deviation loss function, and examples assuming a uniform distribution for the 'expert's' prediction are presented. (Author)

Descriptors :   *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, *DECISION THEORY, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, DECISION MAKING, UNCERTAINTY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, MATRICES(MATHEMATICS), INTEGRAL TRANSFORMS, THESES.

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE