Accession Number : AD0904407

Title :   The Delphi Technique and ITS Applicability to Army Systems Analyses.

Descriptive Note : Technical memo.,

Corporate Author : ARMY MATERIEL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ACTIVITY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD

Personal Author(s) : Sebastiani, Lambert J.

Report Date : JUN 1972

Pagination or Media Count : 35

Abstract : Delphi is a normative technique for solving problems that involve uncertainty. It employs well-structured, objective procedures for the elicitation of expert judgment. This report presents a brief description of the Delphi technique and an orientation to its features and methods. It evaluates the research which has been done to validate Delphi, and discusses the problems associated with its application to Army systems analysis. Normative techniques are still an art and must be applied with caution. The analysts must be experienced and knowledgeable. These techniques should not replace analytical methods, but may be gainfully employed where uncertainty prevails and good judgment is necessary. (Author)

Descriptors :   (*DECISION MAKING, ARMY OPERATIONS), (*PROBLEM SOLVING, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING), ARMY PERSONNEL, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), FEEDBACK, REASONING, MOTIVATION, ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), UNCERTAINTY, ITERATIONS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, QUESTIONNAIRES, RESPONSE(BIOLOGY), ERRORS, CORRECTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION, QUALITY CONTROL, OPERATIONS RESEARCH.

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Statistics and Probability
      Operations Research
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE