Accession Number : ADA017068

Title :   Numerical Methods for Analyzing World Dynamics Models.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL UNDERWATER SYSTEMS CENTER NEWPORT R I

Personal Author(s) : Erickson,Stanley A. ; Pikul,Ronald A.

Report Date : 09 SEP 1975

Pagination or Media Count : 62

Abstract : This report is an extensive investigation of WORLD 2, the mathematical model used to forecast changes in the world's socio-economic system proposed by J. Forrester in 1971. Its purpose is to develop methods and techniques by which a rapid, facile study of other, more complicated models can be made. The significance of WORLD 2 major assumptions relative to its output are studied by devising and applying various computer techniques to the basic model and several variations of it. Standard small-scale sensitivity tests, reverse running, and scaling (inverse sensitivity tests) were among the techniques used to determine the extent of alteration necessary to produce in WORLD 2--without any structural modification--outcomes divergent from Forrester's calculations, thereby making possible identification of significant variables and sectors.

Descriptors :   *Sociometrics, *Economic analysis, *Earth models, Mathematical models, Forecasting, Computer applications, Modification, Test methods, Pollution, Population, Food, Shortages

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE