
Accession Number : ADA017550
Title : The Effect of Uncertainty on LanchesterType Equations of Combat.
Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,
Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Personal Author(s) : Craig,James David
Report Date : SEP 1975
Pagination or Media Count : 172
Abstract : This thesis examines whether the complex random process of combat can be adequately represented by a deterministic model. Does one destroy any of the essential features of the random combat process by considering a deterministic model as representing the average course of combat. Insights into the fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic models are obtained by comparing the deterministic and stochastic versions of the socalled Lanchester squarelaw attrition process. Three aspects of the models are compared, with several hypotheses examined for each: Probability of winning, the expected force level time history, and the variance of the expected force levels. From the analysis it is concluded that if the forces are not near parity, and if the initial force levels are relatively large, a deterministic model can adequately represent combat. (Author)
Descriptors : *Battles, *Stochastic processes, Uncertainty, Lanchester equations, Mathematical models, Probability, Mathematical prediction, Combat effectiveness, Battalion level organizations, Attrition, Casualties, Survival(Personnel), Numerical integration, Computer programming
Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE